‘Protecting the Planet’ & ‘Wellcome to the Science of Protecting the Planet’ (WEA courses)


Global Warming (i) the science, causes, and the sceptics!

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1. Summary/overview:    #overview

1.1 Key points:

Global warming – man-made (anthropogenic) climate change - the most serious environmental danger we face.

1.2 How exactly does global warming occur?  #Role of CO2

Greenhouse effect, role of CO2, CFCs, methane... ‘Climate’ is not the same as ‘weather’. Effects are uneven.

1.3 Update. A recent paper arguing that the rate of warming at this point in time is faster than for the last 2,000 years: #rate

1.4 Sources of CO2. It is worth noting that we now can measure the different things that produce CO2, and the pattern is revealing: #sources


2. Brief History of International Agreements on Climate Change #history


3. More detail on Global Warming – evidence and scale:  #evidence

3.1 Is it a scam?    #scam   

- 97% of climate scientists agree the world is warming as a result of our activities, mainly through carbon dioxide production.

the Intergovernmental Panel on climate Change (IPPC) agrees, having scrutinised thousands of peer-reviewed studies.

the Academies of Science of 34 different countries all signed the IPCC statement.

the recent Paris agreement on climate change was signed by 194 countries.


3.2 Correlation of changes in CO2 with temperature change. #correlation


Evidence (Al Gore 2006): ice cores can be used to measure CO2 (bubbles) and temperature (isotopes of oxygen).

Ice ages and interglacial periods: during the ice ages the concentration of CO2 was below 200ppm, and large parts of the earth were covered with a sheet of ice a mile thick!

The ‘warm periods’ show levels of up to 260ppm. ‘At no point before the industrial era did the CO2 concentration go above 300 parts per million.’

Temperatures show dramatic and steady increase of around 0.5 degrees since the mid-20th century. Global temperatures have risen by almost 1 degree since 1880 (NASA).

Levels of CO2 now: 403.3ppm (parts per million) – highest for 3 million years. (WMO)

Recent high global temperatures. Increase in CO2 still going on (and effects will last, and we cannot remove it).

Positive feedback and other concerns.


3.3 #weather and climate change – see also Effects of global warming


3.4 Evidence and Scale - Conclusion


3.5 #updates – positive feedback loops – scientific consensus – beef production – the Arctic

Plastic and CO2: With plastics, the production and use of them will emit 0.86 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent this year (2019). This = 3.8% of total carbon emissions (Tamara Galloway, Exeter Uni, quoting report by Center for International Environmental Law).

4. What does NOT cause global warming (sceptics claim these do):  #other things  

(i) Sunspots, (ii) the earth’s orbit or tilt, (iii) CO2 is heavy, how can it cause global warming? (iv) volcanoes... Other sceptics’ arguments (and response): (v) We cannot trust scientists: UEA emails, (vi) An Inconvenient Truth film taken to court (but no evidence of misrepresenting facts) (vii) Arctic ice is getting thicker, (but it’s covering less ground) (viii) There have been periods (mediaeval) when warming has not occurred (but short!) (ix) It’s a Chinese plot to undermine the USA, or a socialist plot (but US economy would benefit from change to low-carbon/renewables)


5. Who are the climate sceptics?        #who? NB: no refereed scientific papers deny global warming, while most (53%) newspaper articles give the ‘sceptical’ point of view equal space to the mainstream view.

5.1 media

5.2 key figures: Phillip Stott, Piers CorbynNigel Calder, Nigel Lawson: not scientists, but mostly pro-market and on the right politically (see also Donald Trump!).  

5.3 press: Mail

5.4 Representation in the press: three sceptics - Christopher Booker (Sunday Telegraph), Peter Hitchens (The Mail on Sunday), Matt Ridley (Times, former chair Northern Rock) vs. one for consensus: George Monbiot (Guardian).

5.5 Social media #social media

5.6 ‘Doubt is our product’ – (tobacco company 1960).


#backlash – the Manhattan Institute & Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI). Trying to get plastic bag bans lifted...


6. Lobbying: American Enterprise Institute – contributions to Exxon Mobil. #oil companies NB. 1970s Shell and BP begin funding scientific research in Britain to examine the climate impacts from greenhouse gases. 1990s: Exxon funds Dr Fred Seitz and Dr Fred Singer who dispute the mainstream consensus on climate change. Both had previously challenged the hazards of smoking. Updates: Naomi Seibt, Heartland Institute, Desmog link.


7. #other lobbying groups.

#Brexit & 55 Tufton Street

#Global Climate Coalition




1. Summary/overview:


1.1 Key points:

Many observers believe that the most serious threat facing the earth today is climate change as a result of global warming.  The aspect of air pollution that is involved here is “the greenhouse effect”. When sunlight warms the earth, some of that heat is lost through radiation (bouncing off the earth) back into space. But there are some gases in the atmosphere that retain or reflect the heat back to earth – like the glass in a greenhouse. The effect, as noted below, was first discovered in the late 19th century.


Here we have another example of the precise balancing phenomenon at work in the ecosphere, since we are kept at just the right temperature for life to exist! (See the Gaia hypothesis). The most notable of these ‘greenhouse gases’ is carbon dioxide. In itself this is a harmless gas: we breathe it out all the time, when the oxygen we breathe in has been used in the lungs. (We could not live in an atmosphere of pure carbon dioxide, however). The balance of oxygen, nitrogen, carbon dioxide and other gases is just right for life.


However, human industrial activity - especially the burning of fossil fuels - including cars, has resulted in an increase in the amount of carbon dioxide, which has been carried up into the atmosphere and now keeps in some of the sun’s heat. Other contributing gases are CFCs (see notes on the ozone layer...) and methane: the latter is naturally produced by rotting vegetation, in ponds etc, but the amount of methane produced by human activity has actually increased with the industrialisation of farming, since cows’ flatulence contains the gas!  A large proportion of greenhouse gases some from this source.


With regard to carbon dioxide emissions in the UK, levels are likely to be higher than government statistics suggest, and everyone agrees they are going to keep on rising so long as we continue to burn fossil fuel (especially coal and oil, but also gas). 


There are a few people who say there is a correlation but not cause and effect – but given some of the changes to weather etc, and the measured warming of the globe, something is causing the temperature to rise, and the vast majority of climate scientists are convinced it is due to the greenhouse effect. (See the section on ‘sceptics’ below). Nowadays we talk of ‘climate change’ because the whole globe is affected. Some places will have warmer weather, some will have colder spells, some more rain and others drought. Weather is not the same as climate! Effects of global warming are uneven.



1.2 How exactly does global warming occur? The role of CO2:

From https://www.livescience.com/58203-how-carbon-dioxide-is-warming-earth.html

Sunlight enters the atmosphere as ultraviolet and visible light; some of this solar energy is then radiated back toward space as infrared energy, or heat. The atmosphere is 78 percent nitrogen and 21 percent oxygen, which are both gases made up of molecules containing two atoms. These tightly bound pairs don't absorb much heat.

But the greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, water vapor and methane, each have at least three atoms in their molecules. These loosely bound structures are efficient absorbers of the long-wave radiation (also known as heat) bouncing back from the planet's surface. When the molecules in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases re-emit this long-wave radiation back toward Earth's surface, the result is warming.

How do scientists measure CO2?

Scientists monitor carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by pumping air into an artificial chamber and shining an infrared light through the sample. Carbon dioxide absorbs infrared light very efficiently, ...  so the amount of infrared absorbed can be used to calculate the amount of CO2


1.3 Update. A recent paper arguing that the rate of warming at this point in time is faster than for the last 2,000 years:

From: https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/climate-is-warming-faster-now-than-last-2000-years?

By Dr Benjamin Henley, University of Melbourne and Dr Raphael Neukom, University of Bern: new reconstructions of Earth’s temperature over the past 2000 years highlight the astonishing rate of recent widespread warming of our planet. They also give us a clearer picture of decade-to-decade temperature variations and what drove those fluctuations before the industrial revolution.

The research, published in Nature Geoscience, produces the clearest picture yet of the Earth’s average temperature over the most recent two millennia and reinforces concerns about the future impacts of global warming.

The study includes an update of the original ‘hockey stick’ curve, published by Mann, Bradley & Hughes twenty years ago. It was the first to note that late 20th century warmth in the Northern Hemisphere was unprecedented during at least the last 1000 years. Since then, scientists from the palaeoclimate community have been working to construct an improved and expanded data set, and enhance the statistical methods underlying their reconstructions of global climate. In past millennia, we didn’t have the luxury of modern technology such as ocean buoys and satellites to gauge temperature, but nature recorded the answers for us. We just have to learn how to read those clues.

Corals, ice cores, tree rings, lake sediments and ocean sediment cores are examples of proxy data sources that provide scientists with a wealth of information about past conditions. This proxy data can be brought together to tell us a lot about the global climate system in the past.

Teams of scientists around the world have spent many thousands of hours of field and laboratory work collecting samples and analysing data. They publish and make freely available their precious data so that other teams of scientists can undertake further analysis. Previously, our team and other experts around the world, meticulously analysed, vetted and collated temperature-sensitive proxy data from around the world. We then made the full dataset publicly available.

With this unique dataset in hand, our team set about reconstructing past global temperatures.

Scientists are notoriously sceptical of their own analysis, but we are more confident about our findings when different methods applied to the same data yield the same result. In this latest paper, we applied seven different methods to a common underlying dataset. We found a remarkable resemblance in the multi-decadal fluctuations in temperature between the seven methods. We also found that climate models performed very well in comparison to our reconstructions, capturing the amplitude of natural variability in the climate system. This gave us the confidence to delve further, to try to understand what drove global temperature fluctuations before the industrial revolution took hold. To do this we used climate models and reconstructions of external climate forcing – a term which refers to influences from outside of the climate system such as volcanic eruptions and solar variability.

We determined that prior to the industrial revolution, global temperature fluctuations from decade to decade were mainly controlled by aerosol forcing from major volcanic eruptions - not by variations in the Sun’s output. So, in the centuries before human activity began to affect the climate – volcanoes controlled global temperature. There are, of course, natural changes in Earth’s temperature from decade to decade and century to century. With our new reconstructions, we were able to quantify the rate of warming and cooling periods across the past 2000 years. We found that at no time in that period has the rate of Earth’s warming been so high.

In statistical terms, all instrumental 51-year temperature trends starting after the 1950s exceed the 99th percentile of reconstructed pre-industrial 51-year trends. For increasing timescales, particularly those longer than 50 years, the probability that the largest warming trend occurred after 1850 swiftly approaches 100 per cent.

What does this mean in a nutshell?

It is yet further evidence of human-induced warming of the planet and illustrates that Earth is getting warmer, faster. Our understanding of Earth’s past temperature variations contributes to our understanding how life evolved, where our species came from, how our planet works and how modern climate change will unfold due to human activity. We know that over millions of years, the movement of tectonic plates and slow interactions between the solid earth, the atmosphere and the ocean affect global temperature. Over tens to hundreds of thousands of years, our planet’s mean temperature is gradually influenced by small variations in the geometry of the Earth and the Sun, like wobbles and variations in the Earth’s rotation and tilt.

At the Last Glacial Maximum about 26,000 years ago, huge ice sheets covered large parts of the Northern Hemisphere landmass.

The Earth then transitioned into a 12,000-year warm period called the Holocene.

This was a time of relative stability in global temperature, apart from the temporary cooling effect of the odd volcano.

With the development of human agriculture, our prosperity and population grew. Following the industrial revolution, rapid warming commenced due to human activity. Now, with a clear and concerning picture of temperature variations of the past few millennia we have a greater understanding of the nature of Earth’s recent warming. Is this what we really want for the future of our planet?

Researchers in this study include Neukom, R., Barboza, L.A., Erb, M.P., Shi, F., Emile-Geay, J., Evans, M.N., Franke, J., Kaufman, D.S., Lücke, L., Rehfeld, K., Schurer, A., Zhu, F., Brönnimann, S., Hakim, G.J., Henley, B.J., Ljungqvist, F.C. & Von Gunten, L.

We owe the teams of proxy experts much gratitude. It is their generous contribution to science and human knowledge that has supported this and other compilation and synthesis studies.

A version of this article also appeared in The Conversation.

1.4 It is worth noting that we now can measure the different things that produce CO2, and the pattern is revealing:

Carbon emissions: 2nd April 2019. (G Arthur Neslen). Ryanair is the first non-coal company to become one of the top 10 carbon emitters, according to EU figures.


The Irish airline, which transports 130 million people a year, declared 9.9 megatonnes of greenhouse gas emissions in 2018, up 6.9% on last year and 49% over the last five years, according to data in the EU’s latest emissions trading system registry.

Andrew Murphy, the aviation manager at the European Federation for Transport and Environment, said: “this undertaxed and under-regulated sector needs to be brought into line, starting with a tax on kerosene and the introduction of mandates that force airlines to switch to zero-emission jet fuel.”

Aviation is responsible for about 3% of Europe’s greenhouse gas emissions, but industry forecasts suggest this could rise by up to 700% by 2050 as the sector grows.

Feb 12th 2020: Notes on different sources of CO2...

Emissions from industry and transport make up 75% of the world’s carbon footprint (article on Bill Gates plan for super-yacht powered by liquid hydrogen). (Jan 2020?)

10% from food waste... [to be expanded?...]

Feb. 2020. And very recently we have come to realise that computers contribute:

Internet: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/12/real-problem-netflix-addiction-arbon-emissions 

26th Aug 2020. Staggering levels of CO2 from incinerators – legal challenge could be mounted against the government’s decision to exclude waste incinerators from post-Brexit carbon emissions trading scheme (for net zero by 2050). Sandra Laville, Guardian. Georgia Elliott-Smith is fighting the expansion of Edmonton EcoPark waste incinerator in north London.

For more on the contribution of fossil fuels: see effects of global warming (see also industries and the environment). See below on Exxon and climate change denial.

Sep 18th 2019. Oil, war, climate change. Bill McKibben writes of the link between oil and war, after missiles struck Saudi oil facilities over the weekend. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/18/climate-crisis-oil-war-iraq-saudi-attack-green-energy

He Includes this: ‘Thanks to great investigative reporting, we now know that the oil industry knew all about climate change decades ago, but instead of acknowledging it and helping us move to a new energy future, they instead spent billions building the scaffolding of deceit and denial and disinformation that kept us locked in the present paradigm. Just as they have profited from sea-level rise and Arctic melt, so they will profit from the war now starting to unfold. (Right on schedule, the share prices of fracking firms and oil majors all jumped perkily northwards on Monday morning.)

27th Jan 2020. Total: 14 French local authorities and several NGOs will take court action to order Total to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions.  They will act under a French law the ‘duty of vigilance’ – large corporations must set out measures to prevent human rights violations or environmental damage arising from their activities. (Angelique Chrisafis)

1.5 Summary of the main effects of global warming:

The average surface-air temperature globally has risen by 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit (0.8 degrees Celsius) since the beginning of the industrial age. That's according to the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), released in 2014.

Sea-level rise has gone up globally by about 7.4 inches (0.19 meters) on average since 1901. According to the IPCC, the rate of sea-level rise since the middle of the 1800s has been higher than the rate during the previous two millennia.


2. Brief History of Climate Change (from Earthmatters, published by Friends of the Earth, Summer 2009, extra notes from Wikipedia and from Jonathan Watts, Guardian 10th Oct 2019: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2019/oct/09/half-century-dither-denial-climate-crisis-timeline).


1750 – 1800 start of industrial revolution – rises in average global temperatures are measured as from pre-industrial level.


1896 Swedish Chemist Svente Arrenhuis describes how greenhouse gases work and predicts a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could increase global temperatures by 5 degrees.


1957 David Keeling measures changes in CO2 (Hawaii), correlates with fossil fuel use. Climate scientists now use the Keeling curve to describe the increase in CO2.


1959 Edward Teller tells the American Petroleum Industry a 10% increase in CO2 would melt the icecap and submerge New York. ‘I think that this chemical contamination is more serious than most people tend to believe.’


1965 Lyndon Johnson’s President’s Science Advisory Committee: ‘pollutants have altered on a global scale the carbon dioxide content of the air’  with effects that ‘could be deleterious’. The head of APIU: ‘Time is running out.’


1970s Shell and BP begin funding scientific research in Britain to examine the climate impacts from greenhouse gases. A recent lawsuit claims scientists told Exxon management in 1977 that scientific opinion ‘overwhelmingly favoured’ the view that fossil fuels were responsible for CO2 increases.


1979 first World Climate Conference highlights CO2 levels.


1980, 1981 scientists from API and others set up task force, and are told of likely ‘major economic consequences’ of a 2.5 degree rise. Internal Exxon memo warns of ‘later effects [that would be] catastrophic’.


1988 James Hansen of NASA testifies to US Senate that the greenhouse effect is changing our climate now.


1989 Global Climate Coalition established by US industry groups challenging the science and arguing for delays to action. Exxon, Shell and BP join 1993-4.


1990 IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (established by United Nations Environment Programme, and World Meteorological Organisation) 1st Report says human activity likely to be contributing to climate change. Details of working methods etc. of IPCC at: http://www.ipcc.ch/index.htm


1991 Shell produces film acknowledging ‘possibility of change faster than at any time since the ice age... too fast for life to adapt without severe dislocation.’


1992 Rio Earth Summit or UN Conference on Environment and Development. 172 governments participate (2,400 representatives of NGOs, and 17,000 attended a parallel NGO Global Forum which had ‘consultative status’. Issues addressed included: patterns of production (toxic components such as lead in petrol, poisonous waste, radioactive chemicals), transport, air pollution, water, protection of land of indigenous peoples.  à Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC). US had reservations about the Convention. Also: Convention on Biological Diversity (US did not sign), and other statements. Criticised for not recognizing need to fight poverty.


1990s: Exxon funds Dr Fred Seitz and Dr Fred Singer who dispute the mainstream consensus on climate change. Both had previously challenged the hazards of smoking.


1995 2nd IPCC Report.


1997 Mobil places ad in New York Times: ‘the science of climate change is too uncertain to mandate a plan of action.’ (Mobil and Exxon later merge).


1997 Kyoto Protocol (building on the Framework Convention) signed by 192 parties (Canada withdrew in 2012 and US has not ratified it), to reduce greenhouse gas emissions ‘to a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.’ To come into force in 2005, and expire 2012.


1998 US refuses to ratify Kyoto protocol.


1999 Exxon CEO: ‘projections are based on completely unproven climate models (contradicting Exxon’s own scientists).


2000 Exxon ad: ‘Unsettled Science’ claims ‘scientists remain unable to confirm... humans are causing climate change.’


2001 3rd IPCC Report.


2001 George W Bush opposes Kyoto ‘because it exempts 80% of the world from compliance and because it would cause serious harm to the US economy’.


2002 Larsen B ice shelf breaks up – a piece of ice a quarter the size of Northern Ireland falls into the Antarctic Sea.


2003 estimated 35,000 Europeans die in extreme summer temperatures.


2004 sudden cold temperatures cause cracks in Empire State Building.


2005 Hurricane Katrina hits New Orleans.


2007 IPCC Fourth Report says there is a 90% chance that human activity is warming the planet, and that global average temperatures will rise by another 1.5 to 5.8C this century, depending on emissions.”


2007 IPCC and Al Gore share Nobel Peace prize. Gore’s film/powerpoint presentation An Inconvenient Truth wins an Oscar. ‘Washington Declaration’ initiates a ‘cap-and-trade’ system to apply to industrialised and developing countries.


2008 Ed Miliband climate change minister, UK passes Climate Change Act (world first).


2009 Barack Obama becomes president and puts billions into renewables.


2009 ‘Climategate’ – e-mails hacked from Climatic Research Unit at University of East Anglia – scientists accused of distorting evidence and suppressing opposing data. Attack is led by US Senator Jim Inhofe, whose main donors are in the oil and gas industry at the UN climate conference at Copenhagen, which ends in disarray.


2010 Reports by Lord Oxburgh, Sir Muir Russell and Commons Science and Technology Committee find no malpractice, no withholding of evidence and no suppressing of dissenting views. Public trust in climate scientists drops from 60% to 40%.


2009, 2010: Conferences in Copenhagen Cancun


2012 Doha extension of (1997) Kyoto Protocol: 37 countries adopt binding targets (of which 7 have ratified), by July 2016 the number of countries adopting it rose to 66, but 144 are required for it to enter into legal force. EU and others agree to extend treaty to 2020.

2013 Richard Heede of Climate Accountability Institute shows 90 companies are responsible for two thirds of the CO2 entering the atmosphere since the 1750s.


2015 Paris Conference (UN Climate Change Conference – COP21: 21st annual session of the Conference Of the Parties to the 1992 Framework Convention). 196 parties attended. Agreement will enter into force when joined by at least 55 countries representing at least 55% of global greenhouse emissions.


2016 Earth Day – 22nd April: 174 countries sign in New York. Goal: to limit global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. Parties will also ‘pursue efforts to’ limit the increase to 1.5 degrees. This will require zero emissions between 2030 and 2050. 


2017 Exxon, Chevron and BP each donate at least $500,000 for Donald Trump’s inauguration. Later he announces he will pull out of the Paris agreement.


2017 Nov 6th, COP23 in Bonn: 10,000 government delegates, 8,000 others. Fiji is chair.


2018 US, Saudi Arabia Kuwait and Russia dilute a landmark UN report on dangers of global warming beyond 1.5C.


2019 secretary general of OPEC: climate campaigners are the biggest threat to industry and are misleading the public.


3. More detail on Global Warming – evidence and scale:

(Notes initially written in response to a paper by a student on one of my WEA courses, who said climate change is a ‘disaster myth’):


3.1 Introduction: is it a scam? ‘There is not agreement among scientists that global warming is happening’:


Update, May 2020. A new ‘documentary’ film, by Michael Moore has surprised many people because it is an attack on the movement for renewable energy.

https://desmog.co.uk/2020/05/01/fossil-fuel-backed-climate-deniers-rush-promote-michael-moore-planet-of-humans - an article from ‘Desmog’ discussing how climate change deniers have latched on to this film.


2016 notes: It seems to me that a small group of ‘sceptics’ manage to have an influence that outweighs their number and their importance. It may be a bit odd to arrange these notes in the form of a ‘reply to sceptics’, but I was prompted to do so, a few years ago, by a detailed paper prepared by a student – until then perhaps I had been guilty of assuming that everyone knew how global warming worked!


I have also recently (2016) had cause to write to a local paper, because they have printed at least two letters from a local councillor who is a climate sceptic! The councillor’s argument was (in part) that changes in CO2 occur after changes in temperature, not before.

I wrote two replies, and the second (which they published) points out that no sources were given for this claim, while:


- ‘97% of climate scientists agree the world is warming as a result of our activities, mainly through carbon dioxide production.

the Intergovernmental Panel on climate Change (IPPC) agrees, having scrutinised thousands of peer-reviewed studies.

the Academies of Science of 34 different countries all signed the IPCC statement.

- the recent Paris agreement on climate change was signed by 194 countries.’ 


I added that in the light of this ‘It is just nonsense to talk of a 'scam' perpetrated by mysterious 'interests' (which is what climate sceptics often say) - as it is no-one's interests to deny that global warming/climate change is happening. The World Health Organisation has said that 'climatic changes already are estimated to cause over 150,000 deaths annually.' 


My letter ended: ‘In my view it is irresponsible of a local paper to keep printing these false claims when across the globe people are already suffering from the effects of climate change.’ However, this sentence was not printed!


I hope this explains my concerns over ‘climate scepticism’!


Update: the same councillor has repeated his claims more recently (2019) and myself and a few other people have been arguing against him.


An example is here: https://www.romfordrecorder.co.uk/recorder-letters-healthcare-funding-climate-change-1-6282731


I replied to various points made in the student’s paper as follows:


3.2 Correlation of changes in CO2 with temperature change.

NASA has a graph on their website: http://climate.nasa.gov/keyIndicators/  which takes a mean temperature between 1951 and 1980 and plots the changes since 1880. It shows that around 1880 the temperature was 0.4 (degrees Celsius) below the mean, and now it is approaching 0.6 above. You can either say this is a 0.6 rise or I guess you could say it is 1 degree. I have seen other figures of 0.8 (Robin McKie – science editor of the Observer newspaper) or even more... and if, as many argue, the warming is a trend, then mean temperatures are likely to carry on increasing. There is a great danger if the upwards curve is, as Al Gore and others argue, exponential.


In his 2006 book, An Inconvenient Truth, Al Gore points out (p65) that scientists (he quotes Dr Lonnie Thompson, School of Earth Sciences, glaciologist, Distinguished University Professor at Ohio State University, and Senior Research Scientist at the Byrd Polar Research Center at Ohio) can measure both the past temperature of the earth’s atmosphere and the amount of CO2 in it, by examining ice cores. The CO2 is present in bubbles in the ice, and the ratio of different isotopes of oxygen (Oxygen 16 and Oxygen 18) records the temperature. He prints graphs (p64) which show the changes over the past 1,000 years. These show a dramatic and steady increase of around 0.5 degrees since the mid-20th century. Andrew Simms, G2 19th Jan 2017 says ‘temperatures have risen by almost 1 degree since 1880.’


There have been other fluctuations – such as the ‘medieval warm period’ – but this can be seen to have been a small, short-lived ‘blip’.


Perhaps the most striking chart, however, shows (p66-7) measurements in Antarctica going back 650,000 years. Here it is really clear that the changes in temperature and in CO2 concentration correlate very closely. You can see ice ages with periods of warming in between. During the ice ages the concentration of CO2 was below 200ppm, and this means large parts of the earth were covered with a sheet of ice a mile thick! The ‘warm periods’ show levels of up to 260ppm. ‘At no point before the industrial era did the CO2 concentration go above 300 parts per million.’


Current levels of CO2 are around 408 ppm (parts per million) – and this has increased in the last few years (2013 – 2017) (Wikipedia, quoting National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration). Note that this is (only) 0.04% by volume... [Note also: CO2 is essential for life, as the carbohydrates in the plants we eat are our primary source of energy; carbohydrates are made by plants through photosynthesis, which uses sunlight to convert CO2 and water into carbohydrates]. There has been a 40% increase (from 280 to 400) since the start of the industrial revolution in the middle of the 18thcentury. The level of 280 ppm held for 10,000 years before the industrial revolution. The present concentration is the highest in at least the past 800,000 years, and likely the highest in the past 20 million years (Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis). It is currently rising at a rate of approximately 2ppm per year – and accelerating (Peter Tans, Trends in Carbon Dioxide, NOAA/ESRL). 


These increases may appear small, but:

(a) only a few degrees (5 – 10) drop would produce an ice age, and Robin McKie, drawing on UN sources, says that an increase of 2 degrees would lead to 3 billion people suffering water shortages, and global food production being disrupted: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/dec/26/robin-mckie-carbon-emissions-up


(b) taking a global average, the 20 warmest years have occurred since the 1970s, and the 10 warmest years have occurred in the last 12 years (NASA) – the rate of change seems to be accelerating (see the point below on exponential growth). 2016 has been the hottest year to date, and each preceding year has shown warming.


Oct. 2020 Ecowatch: https://www.ecowatch.com/earth-warmest-september-record-2648126919.html?rebelltitem=2#rebelltitem2

Monitors of the Paris Climate Agreement will view the figures with particular alarm: for the 12-month period through to September 2020, the planet was nearly 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.4 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than pre-industrial levels.

This is close to the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold for severe impacts to the planet detailed in a 2018 UN climate report.

The Paris Agreement, of which many UN nations are signatories, has nations aim to cap global warming "well below" 2 degrees Celsius and at 1.5 degrees if possible.


3.3 Weather and climate:

However, an increase in global temperatures does not mean that everywhere gets warmer! There is a difference between weather and climate, and the weather effects of global warming are not easy to predict. However, Al Gore (2006) - see point 9 below - lists not just glaciers melting but also some places getting more rain, some having droughts, more hurricanes and other extreme weather events; the more frequent closing of the Thames flood barrier etc. The Association of British Insurers has pointed out that claims from storm and flood damage doubled between 1998 and 2003 (to over £6 bn) (sorry, I forget my source for this!).


See next week for more examples of the consequences of global warming, but already Bangladesh suffers damaging floods, and these could become worse. In Britain the Thames Barrier has been raised more often recently (19 times in 2003, as against 3 times in 1983) – there is even talk of building another flood barrier. Just as worrying is the possibility that weather conditions will change so that there are more storms, hurricanes etc. Or, temperature changes (e.g. to the Gulf Streamwhich warms Britain’s coast line) would affect crops and even turn some areas to desert.

We have already had freak weather conditions in Britain – the floods in Cornwall, at Boscastle in 2004 for example – and scientists such as John Schellnhuber, of the Tyndall Centre, warn that things could get worse (Observer 7/11/2004). Apart from the damage, Schellnhuber and others argue that a point will come when insurers will not be able to pay for the damage: Insurers Munich Re believe that by 2060 the “cost of our changing weather will outstrip the total value of commodities and services produced by the global economy” The United Nations reports that the number of natural disasters has doubled over the past decade, and resultant economic losses have more than trebled. (Observer loc cit)]

A piece in New York Times (Sat Apr 15th 2012) asks whether the more variable weather we now see in the northern hemisphere is a result of climate change. In March parts of the US were very cold, after a freak heat wave – in France it was the other way round...

An IPCC report issued in late March (2012) suggested there is a link, and that climate change is leading to increased frequency of heat waves, and of heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding. The most likely explanation is that this is connected to the melting of Arctic ice, which has shrunk 40% since the early ‘80s – an area the size of Europe is now water, which does not reflect heat away from the surface as ice does. Dr Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University (quoted in the NYT article) says the question is ‘how can it not be’ (how can the loss of sea ice not be affecting atmospheric circulation). In particular, the heat is probably affecting the jet stream, producing ‘kinks’ which disrupt the normal temperatures.


Andrew Simms (loc cit) points out that in the Arctic in Nov 2016 the temperature was 20 degrees C above normal! Giant icebergs are breaking off in Antarctica.

However, some scientists dispute the link between extreme weather and climate change (loc cit): John R. Christy, University of Alabama, says it is simply down to the very dynamic nature of weather. Martin P. Hoerling, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration analyst, says what is happening in the Arctic is mostly staying in the Arctic, and some researchers are in too much of a hurry to establish a link between weather and human causes. But please note: these are arguments about the exact effects of climate change/global warming, not about the underlying trends. The same point needs to be made with reference to the criticisms of the IPCC report which claimed glaciers would melt quickly: this section was written by a separate group to the scientists who measured temperature change etc, and whose task was to speculate about the impact. No errors have been pointed out in the scientific summaries.


Conclusion: the crucial point is that previous rises/falls (going back 600,000 years) have correlated very clearly with the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, and the vast majority of scientists believe the major cause of the increased global temperature is increased CO2, not other factors such as those given in section 4.



3.4 Updates: there is concern about ‘positive feedback’ (see Week 1): as temperatures rise, changes can occur which will produce even more temperature rises in the future, for example: when ice melts, the remaining water absorbs more heat...

Aug. 2020. Frozen peat is melting, but peat stores much CO2. https://theconversation.com/we-mapped-the-worlds-frozen-peatlands-what-we-found-was-very-worrying-144235 ... peatlands cover approximately 3.7 million square kilometres. If it were a country, “Peatland” would be slightly larger than India. These peatlands also store approximately 415 gigatons (billion tons) of carbon – as much as is stored in all the world’s forests and trees together. Almost half of this northern peatland carbon is presently in permafrost, ground that is frozen all year round. But, as the world warms and permafrost thaws, it causes peatlands to collapse and completely changes how they relate to greenhouse gases. Areas that once cooled the atmosphere by storing carbon would instead release more of both CO₂ and methane than they stored. We found that the thaw projected from future global warming will cause releases of greenhouse gas that overshadow and reverse the carbon dioxide sink of all northern peatlands for several hundred years’. As it melts, bacteria digest the peat...


July 2019 reports show consensus is probably over 99% that the earth is warming:



April 2019, from Ecowatch, on beef production: https://www.ecowatch.com/beef-and-climate-change-2634244134.html

20th Sep 2019. Beef and climate change:

NFU says British farming can become climate neutral by 2040 without cutting beef production or converting large areas into forest. Their suggestion is growing fuel for power stations and then capturing the carbon dioxide. Energy plants could them become our biggest crop after wheat. Agriculture causes about 10% of the UK’s climate-heating emissions, with 90% of that being methane from livestock and nitrous oxide from fields. Farmers are seeing the effects of climate change with extreme weather. The plan also includes feed additives to cut methane, gene editing to improve crops and livestock, and controlled-release fertilisers. [Good examples of ‘high-tech’ proposals...]

23rd Oct 2019. The Arctic (Global Citizen, Joe McCarthy): the Arctic is now releasing more carbon dioxide in the winter than it can absorb in the summer, according to a new report.

Now that heat waves are occurring in the winter, and the Arctic is warming three times faster than the global average because of human activity, (*) greenhouse gases that would have normally remained frozen in the ground are being released into the atmosphere, according to a study published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

The study indicates that more than 1.7 billion tons of carbon dioxide are being released from Arctic soil annually because of warming temperatures — but plant growth in the region can only draw around 1.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the soil during warmer months.

That means that an additional 600 million tons of CO2 are being released annually, which exceeds the CO2 levels of 189 countries


4. Other things claimed by sceptics to cause global warming:


(i) Sunspots:

There has been a low level of sunspot activity between 2005 and 2010 – the lowest levels recorded during the satellite era. This means that the earth has been absorbing less energy from this source – recent (2011/12) calculations by the Goddard laboratory for NASA (cited on the NASA website – see References below, and in Hansen’s book) show about 0.25 watts per square kilometer. But the earth’s ‘energy imbalance’ (the difference between energy absorbed by the earth and energy returned to space) is 0.45 watts per square kilometer, that is: there is more energy generated inside the system than the amount that exits (a positive imbalance). Temperatures have been going up – but solar activity cannot be a cause of this. Solar activity varies over 11 year cycles – usually pretty regularly, despite the latest dip (see the next point).


(ii) Another key factor is the orbit and tilt/wobble of the planet:

There are of course natural cycles which affect the climate (including variations in solar irradiation, La Nina etc) – and no proponents of man-made climate change would deny this! The point is that these are natural changes, and pretty much predictable (because their patterns are usually regular), which work over long  cycles – whereas the pumping of CO2 into the atmosphere through burning fossil fuels is not natural, and can be shown to have affected the composition of the atmosphere dramatically in a short time:

The increase was first measured by David Keeling in 1957 (Hansen p 116) – and he also noticed a 24 hour cycle as trees and plants absorbed CO2 during the day and gave off CO2 during the night. He also found that there were variations near to human habitation – which is why he then made more measurements at a remote spot at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.


His measurements, which have never been refuted, (Robin McKie) show that CO2 increased from around 310 ppm to over 390 between 1957 and 2010. (*) There is no doubt that the levels will continue to rise unless major changes are made in the way energy is generated. Moreover, CO2 remains in the atmosphere for some time so that there is a time-lag: even if we start reducing our output now, the results will not be noticeable immediately.

Scientists believe it is important to reduce the level to 350 ppm to restore the energy equilibrium of the planet.

(*) This is a rapid change over a short period of time – and the rate of change seems to be accelerating. This is probably what is called exponential growth – like a compound interest savings account where the amount of increase each year goes up if the interest is left in. However, in nature exponential growth is very dangerous: nothing serious seems to be happening at first, but when the change gets more rapid we get to a ‘tipping point’ beyond which it is impossible to reverse the change. (The example I usually use to illustrate this is a pond in a garden: if weeds, say, are growing exponentially this means that the time in which it takes them to double the space they take up gets shorter and shorter. It is quite possible for weeks of growth to occur before the weeds cover half the pond, but they will then fill it entirely overnight! Your fish will suffocate before you have done anything about it.)


(iii) CO2 is a heavy gas and falls out of the atmosphere:

There is a CO2 or ‘carbon’ cycle – described by Hansen on pp 118 ff: plants, the oceans and the land act as ‘reservoirs’ for CO2 (plants/trees hold 600 billion metric tons [gigatons or GtC] primarily as wood in trees, soils contain 1,500 GtC, and the ocean holds 40,000 dissolved GtC – the atmosphere holds about 800 GtC as CO2).  Again, we know there are natural cycles such as the glacial to interglacial periods due to the movement of the earth in space. Also, when the ocean becomes colder it holds more CO2, so the atmosphere then holds less and this leads to more cooling. But when snow and ice melt, due to the earth’s changing orbit or tilt, then more CO2 is released, leading to more warming. These are examples of positive feedback – and Hansen says they account for nearly half the interglacial global temperature change.


An estimated 30-40% of the CO2 released by humans into the atmosphere dissolves into oceans, rivers and lakes which contributes to ocean acidification: we will deal with the various consequences of global warming later.

The crucial point, once again, is how human activity is interfering with these natural cycles.


(iv) Other natural phenomena such as volcanoes affect the picture:

Yes Mount Pinatubo erupting in 1991 had an effect on global temperatures, by the aerosols it put into the atmosphere: it ‘reduced solar heating of Earth by almost 2%... this... however, was present only briefly – after two years most of the Pinatubo aerosols had fallen out of the atmosphere.’ (Hansen: Storms of my Grandchildren, Bloomsbury 2009, p 5). If there were a series of volcanoes continually erupting we would see a longer-term change.

Hansen in fact identifies no fewer than 9 ‘climate forcings’ – factors that affect the climate (p 6):

- CO2,

other greenhouse gases,


black carbon aerosols,

reflective aerosols,

aerosol cloud changes,

- land cover change,

the sun e.g. June 2011. Another argument that comes up from time to time is that the solar minimum will cause a cooling. It is said there was a solar minimum during the ‘little ice age’ – however, recent scientific studies show that the most likely outcome would be very slight cooling that would make no difference to overall warming:



and volcanoes.

Hansen gives precise quantifications for the different amount of effect each has... and concludes that CO2 is the most significant. This is neither a ‘myth’ nor what you call ‘denial’ (!) but scientific work based on real, detailed and thorough measurements.



(v) Global warming is being unfairly used by such scientists as those at East Anglia University, to explain famines, when these are man-made:

(i) I am not aware of any environmentalists who would say climate change is the only factor in food shortages. UNEP (UN Environmental Programme) did suggest that the Darfur problem originated in climate change, and it seems to me incontrovertible that failure of rainfall causes crops to fail. Of course, civil conflict is a crucial factor as well in these crises, and in some parts of the world civil war has aggravated food shortage, (see John Vidal, Guardian 22.07.11, on the contribution of climate change + war to famine in Somalia) but would you want to rule out climate change altogether?

(ii) Please remember that ‘climategate’ originated when the computer at EAU’s Climate Research Unit was hacked into (by whom?) in order to release emails, which then were publicised by Fox News and other anti-global warming media. Eight committees have since investigated the CRU emails, and no evidence has been found of fraud or scientific misconduct. The scientific findings are not in doubt. The researchers did ‘fail to display the proper degree of openness’ in responding to queries about their data. I suspect they were bombarded with requests from would-be deniers and simply lost patience. Every time I encounter a climate-change sceptic I get the same feeling!



(vi) The film ‘An Inconvenient Truth’ was so full of errors that is was banned from being shown in schools:

The film has not been banned, and the court that was asked to ban it did not disagree with its central theme:

BBC (online) News 11th Oct 2007:  A campaign to stop the government sending DVDs to all secondary schools as part of a climate change package was started by a parent governor Stewart Dimmock (a member of the [right-of-centre] New Party). ‘The judge said he had no complaint about Gore’s central thesis that climate change was happening and was being driven my emissions from humans.’ He had reservations about 9 specific points which were not backed up by sufficient scientific agreement, including:


the claim that polar bears have drowned because they have had to swim further (some have died in storms);

the claim that sea levels would rise by 6 metres in the near future (it would take millennia said the judge);

there was also ‘not sufficient evidence’ that global warming caused hurricane Katrina;

ditto for the melting of snows on Mt Kilimanjaro, or evaporation of Lake Chad.


The judge said that the film should have guidance notes accompanying it to draw pupils’ attention to these points.  ‘The government has sent the film to all secondary schools in England, and the administrations in Wales and Scotland have done the same.’ A 60 page guidance document now goes with it.

The book has many, many examples of the effects of global warming, and it seems significant to me that the court ruled that only the specific ones cited were doubtful.


(vii) Polar ice is not melting:

You can check out details of all this on the NASA website, which has a ‘Global Ice Viewer’ that illustrates dynamically the changes that have been taking place - e.g. the annual minimum amount of Arctic ice (it shrinks in the summer and grows in the winter) has been decreasing by 11.2% per decade over the past 30 years, and in 2007 reached the lowest recorded level.

Greenland’s glaciers are losing 100 – 250 billion tons of ice each year and 400 billion tons has been lost from all glaciers per year since 1994, W. Antarctica has been losing up to 150 billion tons of ice per year). It seems to me that even if (as you claim) the ice is thickening  - which the NASA figures at http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ deny – still the area occupied by the ice has shrunk, and so less heat is reflected back into space and the warmer the planet gets (positive feedback).

Moreover, other changes have occurred in the oceans:

- sea levels have risen by 6.7 inches (17 centimeters) in the last century (approx 4 mm per year)– the rate of change  in the last decade has been double that of the previous century.

the oceans’ acidity has also increased by 30% since the beginning of the industrial revolution (NASA – full references on the webpage; a change of 0.1 pH = 30% acidification)

- plankton, which control the carbon cycle, nitrogen cycle and part of the oxygen cycle (every second breath we take is of oxygen from plankton), are dying off as the oceans warm.


(viii) There have been other periods of temperature change.

Yes but these have been short-lived and due to natural events – the current changes are mad-made, and they show a steady rise of temperature which cannot be reversed.


(ix) It’s a Chinese (or communist) plot!

This reveals the most common denominator among climate sceptics: opposition to the state and to governmental regulation. See below on lobbying... It is worth stating that the US economy would benefit from a change to renewables (see Protecting the Planet 7: effects of climate change) – provided government subsidies are not used for other kinds of energy production. Lord Stern pointed out that we would save money by trying to prevent global warming, as the costs if it increases are huge....


Conclusion: Sep/Oct 2013. Denying Climate Change:

Mehdi Hasan has a brilliant piece in new Statesman:


Deniers are ‘merchants of doubt’, whose ‘doubts’ cost lives, and they are conspiracy theorists. To doubt the findings of thousands of peer-reviewed articles, when of 928 articles produced between 1993 and 2003 not one rejected the consensus, and when 97% of climate scientists are in agreement, you have to believe the unbelievable (‘the greatest hoax ever perpetrated against the American people’, according to US Republican senator James Inhofe).

Hasan quotes an interview with Richard Lindzen, professor of meteorology at MIT, who when asked why the national academies of 34 different countries all signed the IPCC consensus position, suggested they are ‘dependent on the goodwill of the government. And if they’re told ‘sign on’ they’ll sign on.’

According to the WHO ‘climatic changes already are estimated to cause over 150,000 deaths annually.’

The Observer Editorial, 29th Sep 2013, points out: deniers claim the global temperature is no longer rising, when the rate of increase has only slowed down (and is expected to dramatically increase in future), others say Arctic ice is not shrinking when it reached its sixth lowest extent this year; one national newspaper claims the Arctic loss is balanced by the Antarctic gain, when the Arctic loss is 3m sq km of ice in the last 30 years, and the Antarctic has gained 0.3m (probably just year-to-year variability). More worrying is the presence in Cameron’s government of such people as: Peter Lilley (who voted against the climate change act of 2008), and Owen Paterson, a sceptic as environment secretary(!). (See below, for ‘doubt’ being spread)


5. Who are the ‘Climate Sceptics’?


5. 1 The media – TV and the press:

Al Gore in his book cites a study done by Dr Naomi Oreskes of University of California, which was published in Science magazine. She took a random sample (about 10%) of all the peer-reviewed science journal articles on global warming from the previous 10 years. There were 928 articles in the sample, none of which raised any doubts about the cause of global warming (though only three-quarters addressed the 'central elements of the consensus' and the rest were about specific issues not to do with CO2).  On the other hand, another study was done of all the articles in the previous 14 years from what were considered as the four most influential papers in the US (New York Times, Washington Post, LA Times and Wall Street Journal). Again a random sample was taken, amounting to almost 18% of the articles, and this time 53% gave equal weight to the 'consensus view' and to the opposition (sceptics/deniers) - thus giving the impression there was disagreement in the scientific community about the issue. (See more below).


5.2 Media ‘personalities’:

Robin McKie, Observer, 04.03.07(?), points out that those who contest the scientific consensus, e.g. Phillip Stott, Piers Corbyn, Nigel Calder, Nigel Lawson, have often got a political agenda. To deal with global warming, says McKie, quoting philosopher John Gray, will require government action and intervention in our lives – and probably bureaucracy – all of which is anathema to the sceptics, several of whom have pronounced pro-market views. (We are told, for example, that Europe will ban the inefficient fluorescent light bulb: I wonder if the Daily Mail will start a campaign to save it?!)

The names that McKie gives are of people who regularly can be heard on Today and seen on Newsnight  (so they cannot claim, as they do, that there is a conspiracy of silence over their views!).


5.3 The Press (again)

Date? Mail on Sunday criticised by UK press regulator, for claiming that global warming data had been exaggerated in order to get agreement at Paris. The paper said data from US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric  Administration had been treated. The controversy arose over a ‘pause’ in global warming (used by deniers to claim warming had been exaggerated) – 1998 was exceptionally hot owing to a strong El Nino effect. But these years still showed an upward trend compared to the average, so talk of a ‘pause’ was misleading. Fiona Harvey.

5.4 Dec 2017. Peter Wilby (New Statesman 16 Dec 2016 – 5 Jan 2017) says: ‘By my calculations, ten global-warming sceptics – including the Sunday Telegraph’s Christopher Booker, The Mail on Sunday’s Peter Hitchens, and the Times’s Matt Ridley – have regular columns in the main sections of national newspapers.’ According to Geoffrey Lean, environmental correspondent (formerly of Telegraph, Independent on Sunday and Observer) ‘There used to be four of us [columnists in national newspapers accepting the consensus]. But three of us have been sacked in the past 18 months.’ Only George Monbiot remains...


5.5 Social media.

17th Jan 2020. Alex Hern. Some of the biggest companies in the world are funding climate misinformation by advertising their goods on YouTube, according to Avaaz. More than 100 brands had such adverts. Firms were not aware that their video ads were being played before and during the climate videos. Avaaz found that 16 of the top 100 videos found by searching global warming contained misinformation. Avaaz said YouTube should include climate misinformation in its ‘borderline content policy’ and should demonetise misinformation.


June 2020. Facebook and climate change deniers:  https://www.ecowatch.com/facebook-climate-deniers-loophole  


Oct 2020. Facebook has carried advertisements denying the reality of climate change, which have been viewed by at least 8million people. (Damian Carrington)


Adverts on Facebook denying the reality of the climate crisis or the need for action were viewed at least 8 million times in the US in the first half of 2020, a thinktank has found.

The 51 climate disinformation ads identified included ones stating that climate change is a hoax and that fossil fuels are not an existential threat. The ads were paid for by conservative groups whose sources of funding are opaque, according to a report by InfluenceMap.

Elizabeth Warren and other senators wrote to Facebook in July calling on it to close the loopholes.

InfluenceMap compared a database of organisations it said had propagated climate disinformation in the past against Facebook’s Ad Library database to see which advertised on the platform in 2020. Analysis of the ads run by these groups found 51 examples of disinformation, including an ad paid for by the conservative group PragerU that ran to 1 October.

Its headline was: “Make no doubt about it: the hysteria over climate change is to sell you Big Government control.” The accompanying video said: “Fossil fuels are not an existential threat … The Green New Deal is an existential threat.”

Another ad, which ran in April, was paid for by Turning Point USA, whose “mission is to identify, educate, train, and organise students to promote the principles of freedom, free markets and limited government”. It was headlined: “Conservatives Are Pro-Science, While Leftists Are Pro-Panic! Climate Change Is A HOAX! #ThinkForYourself #EarthDay.”

5.6 Doubt

The tobacco industry adopted exactly the same tactics as climate sceptics when the link with cancer was identified: a memo was uncovered from the Brown and Williamson Tobacco Company, written in 1960: "Doubt is our product, since it is the best means of competing with the 'body of fact' that exists in the mind of the general public. It is also the best means of establishing controversy." 


18th July 2020. Statistics and their mis-use. Review of a recent book The Number Bias... by Sanne Blauw, Sceptre: reviewed by Steven Poole, Guardian. Every decision about what to measure and how to measure it bakes in social and moral assumptions. (Therefore machine learning, even though based on masses of data, is often racist, or incompetent). Examples discussed: race (i.e. skin colour...) and IQ, and ‘the deliberate misuse of correlations, graphs and other techniques by the tobacco lobby and global-warming deniers’... 

Update March 2020. The Covid pandemic has brought out some climate sceptics:


In America, several states have rolled back the ban on plastic bags, having been apparently influenced by lobbying by the Manhattan Institute and the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI). They have completely misrepresented the science, as there is no evidence that single-use plastic bags are safer than ‘tote’ bags.

CEI has been supported by the Charles Koch Institute and American Fuel and Chemical Manufacturers.


6. Lobbying, NB. 1970s Shell and BP begin funding scientific research in Britain to examine the climate impacts from greenhouse gases. 1990s: Exxon funds Dr Fred Seitz and Dr Fred Singer (see further below) who dispute the mainstream consensus on climate change. Both had previously challenged the hazards of smoking.


Update June 2020. Fossil fuel companies being sued for misleading the public:


The attorney general for Washington, DC filed a lawsuit on Thursday against four of the largest energy companies, claiming that the companies have spent millions upon millions of dollars to deceive customers in about the calamitous effect fossil fuel extraction and emissions is having on the climate crisis, according to The Washington Post.

The suit names ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, BP and Chevron as the defendants, and argues that the companies "systematically and intentionally misled consumers in Washington, DC ... about the central role their products play in causing climate change," according to The Hill.

Karl A. Racine, the DC attorney general, said in a news conference on Thursday that the four companies painted a false picture of what effect their products had and therefore violated consumer protection laws.

"For decades, these oil and gas companies spent millions to mislead consumers and discredit climate science in pursuit of profits," Racine said in a statement, as The Washington Post reported. "OAG filed this suit to end these disinformation campaigns and to hold these companies accountable for their deceptive practices."

In the DC suit, Racine specifically mentioned the fossil fuel companies' strategy lifted from Big Tobacco. "The companies not only employed the Advancement of Sound Science Coalition — a fake grassroots citizen group created by Big Tobacco as part of the industry's misinformation campaign — they also funded and promoted some of the same scientists hired by tobacco companies," he said in a statement.

More on Exxon: Oct 2020. Exxon and CO2 (see https://www.ecowatch.com/exxon-climate-pollution-carbon-dioxide-2648117228.html?rebelltitem=1#rebelltitem1  and 2 above): Exxon Now Wants to Write the Rules for Regulating Methane ... ›

Exxon's Climate Denial History: A Timeline ›


Oct 2020. Exxon and CO2 emissions:


 ExxonMobil plans to increase its annual carbon-dioxide pollution by more than 20 million tons per year over the next five years, Bloomberg reports.

The increases, which come from the company's own analysis of its direct emissions, are equivalent to 17% of its current carbon pollution — about the yearly emissions of the country of Greece — but account for only about one-fifth of the total greenhouse gas pollution caused by burning Exxon's fossil fuel products. Unlike many European oil majors, Exxon has refused to make efforts to curb its greenhouse gas pollution. Earlier this year, Exxon was removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average and it is currently facing lawsuits from about a dozen jurisdictions alleging it knew, withheld, and denied important information about the impact of fossil fuel consumption on climate change.


7. Other ‘thinktanks’ – Heartland Institute, American Enterprise Institute, ‘dark money’, climate science denial, ‘climategate’, Brexit, 55 Tufton Street: 28th June 2020:


Update: 26th Feb 2020 (David Smith, Washington). A German teenager – Naomi Seibt - is being promoted by the Heartland Institute to put out a message contradicting Greta Thunberg. She is paid an ‘average monthly wage’ by the Institute, which has previously campaigned on behalf of the tobacco and coal industries.  Her mother is a lawyer who has defended members of the extreme right AfD party in Germany. Naomi was previously championed by Martin Sellner, leader of the Austrian Identitarian Movement, who has been denied entry to the UK and the US. She is due to address the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) near Washington, along with speakers including Donald Trump and Mike Pence.


Update: 6th June 2019. ‘Desmog’ has very useful details of climate crisis deniers, and how they operate, for example: https://www.desmog.co.uk/2019/06/20/chief-government-climate-advisor-cleared-wrongdoing-house-lords


The lobby group American Enterprise Institute, (AEI), an ExxonMobil-funded think-tank, has offered scientists and economists $10,000 each for articles questioning the report of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)…. The AEI has received more than $1.6m from ExxonMobil, and more than 20 of its staff have worked as consultants to the Bush administration.


Nov 11th 2019. Climategate, (2009).

Article by Brendan Montague of Desmog and Resurgence: https://www.desmog.co.uk/2019/11/18/how-climategate-laid-foundations-fake-news-era

Links between Nigel Lawson, Christopher Monckton, S Fred Singer, Heartland Institute, GWPF

The target of the hack attack had been Pennsylvania State University Professor Michael Mann, the author of the first ‘Hockey Stick’ graph which showed a dramatic uptick in average global temperatures following hundreds of years of a fairly stable climate. [Wikipedia article doesn’t make this link...]  Professor Phil Jones [University of East Anglia] was collateral damage: accused of academic dishonesty, hauled in front of a powerful Parliamentary committee to answer these trumped up charges, his life’s work unfairly called into question. He considered suicide.

Climategate should have been a storm in a teacup. The emails revealed nothing new. A few choice phrases were taken out of context, twisted, and presented as damning evidence. It was Lord Lawson who turned it into a crisis for climate science.

He launched the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) in Parliament just in time to make best use of the faux scandal, toured the newspaper offices using his reputation as Thatcher’s one time chancellor to persuade editors to take the event seriously, and called on his Tory friends to open their cheque-books to fund his opaque think tank.

Singer worked with the Atlas Economic Research Foundation (now Atlas Network) in the United States. The foundation was primarily concerned with promoting free market, neoliberal economics. Friedrich von Hayek was the intellectual inspiration. He argued that any regulation would distort the market, leading to hardship.

Singer... had previously worked with the tobacco industry deliberately creating smoke and mirrors around the increasing scientific consensus that smoking caused cancer. The foundation received money from the oil industry, including Koch Industries and ExxonMobil, and was instrumental in founding the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) in the UK. It was a trustee of the IEA — David Henderson — who first approached Lord Lawson at an event hosted by the London School of Economics and persuaded him to take up the cause of climate denial.

Lawson did not advise fake news, but it encouraged a distortion of reality that has seriously undermined our politics. It opened the floodgates.

Links between climate science denial and Brexit (continued from article above):

Along the way, the GWPF has gotten into bed with the wildest of right-wing neoliberal think tanks, becoming intimately entwined (*) with those responsible for serious spin and corporate lobbying around Brexit.

Lawson himself was instrumental in the Vote Leave campaign (before applying for residency in France). He was happy to appeal to reactionary populism to settle scores within the Tory party.

One consequence of this is that Nigel Farage long ago adopted the tactics of his namesake. Farage has dabbled in climate denial. He has gone further in stirring up populism. He is the master of scapegoating. And he is forever throwing “dead cats” into the political arena, keeping us constantly focused on our relationship with the EU. And in doing so, his Brexit Party — a party riddled with a Lawsonian brand of climate science denial — came close to destroying Lawson’s Tory party while continuing to push the UK towards the hardest of Brexits.

See also, on funding of Conservative \party MPs: https://www.desmog.co.uk/2019/11/19/election-2019-boris-johnson-conservative-party-climate-science-denial-funding

Johnson, Hancock, Mitchell, Hunt and Fox all received between £20,000 and £30,000 from climate change deniers....

The Brexit Party, and the Spiked connection https://www.desmog.co.uk/2019/11/11/election-2019-here-are-all-brexit-party-s-climate-science-deniers :

The Spiked group of academics and writers who regularly publish articles attacking efforts to tackle climate change are well-represented in the Brexit Party’s candidate list. DeSmog previously revealed that the group was funded by Charles and David Koch, billionaire American industrialists and infamous funders of climate science denial.

James Woudhuysen (Carshalton and Wallington), a professor at London South Bank University, has written extensively on the issue. He acknowledges its existence but opposes what he considers the “misanthropic green ideology of restraint”, backing high-carbon projects like Heathrow expansion and dismissing renewables as “nowhere near viable”.

Stuart Waiton (Dundee West), a sociology professor at Abertay University who has been writing for Spiked since 2001, has described supporters of Greta Thunberg as a “cult”. He told DeSmog he accepted that “mankind is having an impact on the environment” but dislikes environmentalists’ “culture of limits”

Kevin Yuill (Houghton and Sunderland South), a history professor, has cast doubt on the impacts of climate change, decrying “eco-doomsayers”, while Paddy Hannam (Islington South) has described achieving “net zero” emissions as a “waste of money”.

Dr Alka Cuthbert (East Ham), another regular contributor to Spiked, does not appear to have made any public comments on climate change.

James Heartfield, who has blamed the Grenfell tragedy on climate targets and written a book arguing that attempts to “green” the economy are about “manufacturing scarcity to boost prices”, is no longer standing in Islington North for the Brexit Party. He did not know who he had been replaced by when asked.

(*) 55 Tufton Street: https://www.desmog.co.uk/55-tufton-street

Key  People

Building Residents

The Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) exists to combat what it describes as “extremely damaging and harmful policies” designed to mitigate climate change and regularly publishes reports rejecting the scientific consensus on the issue. It was founded in the run-up to the Copenhagen climate summit in 2009 by former Conservative Chancellor Lord Nigel Lawson. Several of the GWPF's members and funders are affiliated with other groups located at 55 Tufton Street. [1], [3]

Civitas is an educational charity and publisher specializing in health, education, welfare, and economics. The think tank has published reports arguing against policies to tackle climate change, including a 2013 report by current Energy Editor of the GWPF John Constable. It claimed a shift to renewable energy would mean “more people would be working for lower wages in the energy sector, energy costs would rise, the economy would stagnate, and there would be a significant decline in the standard of living”. Sir Alan Rudge, an advisor to the GWPF, and Lord Nigel Vinson, a GWPF funder, are both trustees. The group has been criticised by Transparify for its “opaque” operations. [4], [45], [5], [6], [3], [7]

The TaxPayers’ Alliance is a pressure group and think tank formed in 2004 by Matthew Elliott to campaign for a low tax society and advocates the removal of various measures designed to reduce emissions, including the Climate Change Levy. In 2016 the TaxPayers’ Alliance, along with U.S. climate science denying lobby groups the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) and the Heritage Foundation, held a free trade event at the Conservative Party Conference. The group was, as of November 2015, a member of the Cooler Heads Coalition, a climate science denial umbrella group run by the CEI, but is no longer listed on its website. The Taxpayers' Alliance belongs to an international coalition of anti-tax, free-market campaign groups called the World Taxpayers Associations. Other members include the Australian Taxpayers' Alliance, Americans for Tax Reform, the Austrian Economics Center and the Canadian Taxpayers' Federation. [8], [9], [10], [35]

Business for Britain is a pro-Brexit campaign group for business leaders founded in 2013 by Matthew Elliott to push for a referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU. In 2014, it released a briefing paper on ‘Energy Policy and the EU, claiming that EU regulations and policy had driven up the cost of energy in the UK and recommending that the government should consider opting out of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. Matt Ridley, an advisor to the GWPF, launched the Business for Britain North East branch, and Lord Vinson has acted as an advisor to the group.

The European Foundation is a high-profile think tank formed in 1993 to oppose the Maastricht Treaty and chaired by Conservative MP Bill Cash. The group published a report in 2009 during the Copenhagen climate summit, entitled ‘100 reasons why global warming is natural’ ... Members of the group’s advisory board in clued Matthew Elliott, Richard Smith, owner of 55 Tufton St, Roger Helmer (former UKIP member), David Davis (Cons. MP), Oliver Lewtwin, Bernard Jenkin, John Whittingdale, Graham Brady and iain Duncan-Smith. Owen Paterson, former environment secretary is also on the advisory board.

Leave Means Leave is a pro-Brexit campaign group formed following the 2016 EU referendum to “ensure the UK makes a swift, clean exit from the EU”. It backs a “hard” Brexit, with the UK leaving the European Single Market, the Customs Union and the European Court of Justice, and supports the UK reverting to World Trade Organisation rules. The group was co-founded by Richard Tice, a property developer and now Chair of the Brexit Party, and John Longworth, former Director-General of the British Chamber of Commerce and now Chair of Leave Means Leave. Its advisory board includes MPs Sammy Wilson, Owen Paterson, Graham Stringer, Kate Hoey and Peter Bone. On a now-deleted page on the group's website, Nigel Farage was listed as its Vice-Chair, along with Tice.

Global Vision is a Eurosceptic campaign group launched in 2007 by the Conservative peer Lord Blackwell, Chair of Lloyds Banking Group and a former Board Member of the Centre for Policy Studies, and Ruth Lea, Trustee of the Global Warming Policy Foundation and an advisor to the TaxPayers’ Alliance.  According to its website, the group “promotes a constructive new relationship between the UK and Europe based on free trade and mutually beneficial cooperation, whilst opting out of the process of political and economic integration”. Its Economic Advisory Panel includes Neil Record, Patrick Minford (Chair of Economists for Free Trade) and Eamonn Butler (Founder/Director of the Adam Smith Institute). A now deleted webpage listed MPs and peers belonging to the “Parliamentary Friends of Global Vision”, which included Bill Cash, Christopher Chope, Philip Davies, Peter Lilley and Lord Vinson. Its “Business Supporters” include oil and minerals businessman Algy Cluff, GWPF donor Michael Hintze, and Leader of the House of Commons Jacob Rees-Mogg. 

UK2020 is a right-wing think tank which has been compared to the American “Tea Party” movement and was set up by Owen Paterson in 2014. Among the policy recommendations the group calls for is “a robust, common sense energy policy that would encourage the market to choose affordable technologies to reduce emissions.” These technologies include shale gas and small modular nuclear reactors. It seeks to strip back regulations and subsidies in the energy sector designed to combat climate change. Matt Ridley of the GWPF is a policy advisor for UK2020 and Tim Montgomerie, founder of the ConservativeHome website and a former senior fellow at the Legatum Institute, is their political adviser.

The New Culture Forum is a right-wing think tank working to change cultural debates it believes are dominated by “the left”. According to the ConservativeHome blog, Matthew Elliott serves as an advisor to the forum, while Michael Gove, former UK Environment Secretary, has spoken at its events. Its founder and director is Peter Whittle, former UKIP leader in the London Assembly and Culture and Communities Spokesperson for the party.

Nov 2019. Koch brothers – see DeSmog: https://www.desmog.co.uk/2019/11/11/election-2019-here-are-all-brexit-party-s-climate-science-deniers

also on funding to the Tories: https://www.desmog.co.uk/2019/11/19/election-2019-boris-johnson-conservative-party-climate-science-denial-funding

April 2019 link to Left Foot Forward article on Taxpayers’ Alliance working against Southampton clean air plan:


The TPA though regarded these penalties as a “stealth tax” and claims it campaigned against the charges by taking volunteers to Southampton and telling visiting football fans that their coach tickets would be more expensive.

The TPA’s campaign was supported by Royston Smith, the Tory MP for Southampton Itchen who said the clean air plans were anti-business.

Labour-controlled Southampton City Council eventually backed down on plans to charge vehicles. Instead, they opted to make the buses greener and allow taxi drivers to try electric vehicles before they buy them.


2016 (from DeSmogUK) – the Brexit Climate deniers – 55 Tufton Street:

There is a deep-rooted connection between UK climate science deniers and those campaigning for Britain to leave the European Union, new mapping by DeSmogUK can reveal. Tying together this close-knit network reveals how organisations residing behind the doors of Westminter's 55 Tufton Street share many of the same members and donors.

And the reach of this small group of Brexit climate deniers extends beyond this Westminster building to include prominent politicians such as former London Mayor Boris Johnson, Justice Secretary Michael Gove, and Energy Minister Andrea Leadsom as well as traditional British media outlets. Perhaps the epitome of this nexus between climate science deniers and Brexit campaigners came last week when former environment secretary Owen Paterson delivered a speech at this very same address. Advertised by Grassroots Out and hosted by Paterson’s UK2020 think tank, Paterson argued “Why the UK environment would be improved by leaving the EU.” His speech was quickly criticised for being out-of-touch by Green MP Caroline Lucas, who said: “I’m as likely to ask Donald Trump for advice on race relations as I am to trust Owen Paterson on protecting our environment.”

But it's hard to ignore the political movers and shakers working inside the walls of this four-storey, multi-million pound building located just steps from the Houses of Parliament. This small, mostly male, contingent is a significant driving force behind the 'leave' side of the 23 June EU referendum and the same group that wants less, not more, done to tackle catastrophic climate change. The overlap stems from a common neoliberal ideology that fears top-down state interventions and regulations which are perceived as threatening values of individual freedom, economic (market) freedom, or the sovereignty of national governments. Under this logic, we must reject both the European Union and most climate policy. It begs the question: If Britain leaves the EU, what will then happen to the country's climate change policy?

Delving into the web, you’ll quickly get a sense of the deep-rooted connection between these various organisations.  DeSmog UK  first reported on this relationship in January when a slew of climate science deniers published comment pieces blaming European bureaucracy, not climate change, for the December flooding. Then, in February, the Independent revealed that these inter-related groups all share the 55 Tufton Street address. So now, with the Brexit vote less than two weeks away, DeSmog UK has for the first time mapped, in-depth, the climate-euro sceptic bubble for you to explore. 

view this map on LittleSis

How to use the map: Zoom in and out to see the web of relationships between the residents of 55 Tufton Street and its neighbours. Hover over the lines to see the type of relationship between the two entities, and click on the person or organisation’s name to find out more (this will open up a new tab where you can find out more information about all of this entity’s various relationships and stance on climate change).

Looking at the map, you will see 55 Tufton Street at the centre. Above, you have the building’s owner, Richard Smith, and below you have two rows: organisations which currently reside (or did until recently) at this address, and key figures within each organisation. And then you have the many other relationships that are derived from this.

Please note that this is not an exhaustive list of all people affiliated with each 55 Tufton Street organisation. Nor is it likely to be an exhaustive list of all the relationships between the entities included in the map. If you spot something we’ve missed, let us know in the comments section below.

Below (and here – link) we highlight some of key relationships contained in this map:

Who is Richard Smith? He keeps a low profile and is perhaps best known for when he flew David Cameron to his home in Shobdon, Herefordshire in 2007. The Midlands businessman owns HR Smith group, which works on advanced aerospace technologies. Not only is he associated with several of the organisations at 55 Tufton Street, but as the map shows, Smith has also donated money to the Vote Leave campaign, Labour Leave, and the Bruges Group (via his company Techtest).

Meet Vote Leave’s climate science deniers: The prominent Vote Leave campaign group draws several of its members from Paterson’s UK2020 think tank and Lawson’s Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), including Matt Ridley who’s a member of both. UKIP MP Douglas Carswell is also a supporter of Vote Leave – Carswell is known for saying his biggest regret is voting in favour of the 2008 Climate Change Act.

The TaxPayers’ Alliance’s ties to everyone: In 2010 following the general election, the TaxPayers’ Alliance hosted a roundtable meeting to discuss the Conservative Party’s return to power. Among those in attendance included the GWPF, Global Vision, the Centre for Policy Studies, the Institute of Economic Affairs, as well as oil giant BP.

Matthew Elliott: While not at the centre of the map, Elliott is definitely at the centre of many of the 55 Tufton Street organisations, including the TaxPayers’ Alliance (and its donations wing, the Politics and Economics Research Trust), Vote Leave, Business for Britain, and The European Foundation. It’s also interesting to note that Elliott’s wife, Florence Heath, is a petroleum geologist who at one time worked for Shell and was a Charles G. Koch fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute (known for promoting climate science denial) in the summer of 2001.


Global Climate Coalition (July 2019: more from DeSmog.co.uk):


The Global Climate Coalition, GCC, worked for decades to deny global warming and to say the IPCC was ‘politicised’.

Within the GCC, the Science and Technology Assessment Committee (STAC) took responsibility for assessing contemporary climate science and formulating strategic arguments to undermine it. The STAC was chaired by Mobil Oil’s Lenny Bernstein. Mobil, Exxon, and Texaco (now part of Chevron) all contributed five staffers to the committee.

An internal 1994 document outlining “issues and options” for the GCC to consider regarding “potential global climate change” shows the group’s outright climate science denial. 

The document concludes that “the claim that serious impacts from climate change have occurred or will occur in the future has not been proven” and “consequently, there is no basis for the design of effective policy action that would eliminate the potential for climate change.”